Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant: A Potential Risk in the Caucasus Region

This paper assesses a potential risk for the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant (MNPP) in Armenia based on a complex geological analysis of tectonic stresses around blocks of the region where the MNPP is located.

This region of the Lesser Caucasus is characterized by high volcanic activity, strong stresses, constant buildup of stresses and its release through high magnitudes earthquakes, hing along the edges of active, highly seismic tectonic blocks. The active tectonic fault of compression type is located below and in the vicinity of the place, where the power station is allocated. The seismic risks were significantly understated when the power station was constructed. The murderous and destructive Spitak earthquake with over 25 thousand death tolls confirmed this fact. The second murderous earthquake in south-west Turkiye and Syria in 2023 h along the same transform fault, which continued to NW traces in South Caucasus to Metsamor MNPP location. Both earthquakes are located along the same transform fault zones going from NE Mediterranean to South Caucasus. Analysis of the intensity of the earthquakes in this area, their focal mechanisms and risks of movements along active tectonic faults is given in the paper. With reference to numerous papers by Armenian, Russian and European researchers regarding seismic hazards and risks around the Nuclear Power Plant, the conclusion about the soonest shutdown and conservation of Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant has been made.